A mid-Autumn storm system will pummel Northern Michigan Halloween Day all the way into the beginning of the weekend with very heavy rain in the forecast, peaking Thursday night.
If this were winter, we would be dealing with a major snowstorm, but in this case, Northern Michigan sits in the warm sector out ahead of this storm, leading to a lengthy period of rain. Low pressure over the Central Plains will rapidly strengthen as it tracks right towards Northern Michigan Thursday night.
As a result, rain will become even more widespread Thursday late afternoon into Thursday night. The latest weather model guidance coming into the 7&4 Forecast Center is clustering in on the heaviest rain falling along/west of Interstate-75 Thursday night with a potential 1.50" all the way to isolated 3.00" rain forecasts around Traverse City, Cadillac, and Baldwin.
We could see some minor rises on area rivers/streams in these locations along with some minor flooding concerns in more urban areas, although at this point, no flood watches are in effect.
The steady rain will slowly taper off to more of a light rain and eventually numerous passing showers Friday as colder air works in behind our departing system. After highs approach 60F Halloween afternoon, 40's are forecasted Friday with little if any rise in temperatures. While showers will pelt the area Friday, gusty winds will crank up out of the west gusting up to 35 mph.
Lingering showers may mix with some snow Saturday to open up the weekend, with little if any accumulation expected. Highs this weekend will be in the low/mid-40's.
If you have a rain gauge, we would appreciate any rain reports the next couple of days. You can email us directly at firstname.lastname@example.org or let us know on our Upnorthlive Facebook Page.