We expect an active weather day across Northern Michigan Monday with the arrival of a cold front and numerous thunderstorms bubbling up Monday afternoon/evening.
Well ahead of that front this past weekend it was warm to downright hot across parts of Northern Michigan. Indian River in Cheboygan County tops our list where it reached 91F Sunday afternoon. Right behind were Traverse City and Boyne Falls which officially hit 90F and Bellaire checked in with 89F.
The set up Monday is pretty good for what should be widespread thunderstorms thanks to an ample transport of moisture northward across the area, the arrival of that frontal boundary, and some afternoon heating to fuel any storms. We could certainly use some rain. It has been rather dry the past week or so with fire danger becoming more of a concern recently.
It appears that the main window for storms across the area will be between 2-6 p.m. Monday afternoon when thunderstorms will become widespread. While storms will develop, the good news in all of this is that there is a low potential for any severe weather Monday as the strongest winds aloft are north in Canada and with clouds around, we may not be as unstable as we could be. I suppose an isolated stronger storm could develop with some small hail, gusty winds and frequent lightning.
A bigger concern for us that may happen (and did yesterday in Wisconsin in the same type of environment) is the possibility of heavy rain with any storms. A few spots in Wisconsin picked up nearly 3" of rain from storms Sunday afternoon and so just about anywhere in our viewing area Monday heavy rain is possible along with very localized flooding.
Storms will wind down overnight with cooler weather filtering in Tuesday. As low pressure heads northeast, rotating around that system will be some clouds and even a few lighter rain showers Tuesday afternoon.
Highs Monday will be in the 70's before falling into the 60's Tuesday into midweek.
If you do get any flooding where you live or know of any severe weather, please let us know by writing us at firstname.lastname@example.org