Focus turns to much-needed rain Monday night into Tuesday
Overall, it was a decent weekend for outdoor activities across northern Michigan, but the main focus is still on the arrival of much-needed rain. The good news is that confidence is high on a widespread soaking rain starting Monday night and lasting through Tuesday.
Any lake breeze shower activity will fade away through the evening hours as the daytime heating is lost. The first half of Sunday night will be quite pleasant, with mostly clear skies and light winds. Towards daybreak tomorrow, patchy fog and a low cloud deck will form once again (similar to what we have seen the past couple mornings). Low temperatures will only fall into the 60s, making way for a mild night.
Morning fog/low clouds will slowly burn off on Monday, giving way to a partly cloudy sky during the afternoon. An isolated shower/storm is possible in the afternoon, but most will stay dry as our next weather-maker is still off to the south and west (low pressure will be tracking through Missouri and Illinois Monday). High temperatures, despite the early cloud coverage, will range from the upper 70s-80° in the E. Upper, and low-middle 80s in the N. Lower under a southeast wind.
Increasing rain and thunderstorm chances arrive Monday night as the above-mentioned low pressure system tracks into the southern Great Lakes. Model guidance has been consistent with a large swath of rainfall moving up and through the N. Lower in a southwest to northeast fashion by daybreak Tuesday. Throughout Tuesday, low pressure will continue to track through the Great Lakes, allowing rain to continue in the N. Lower and spread into the E. Upper. As of now, areas across the N. Lower have the potential to see an inch or more of rain by the end of Tuesday, with slightly lesser amounts across the E. Upper. This is well-needed because on average, most of Northern Michigan is running a solid 2-4" below normal in rain since the start of June.
By Wednesday and throughout the rest of the workweek, dry weather will return with near-normal high temperatures in the middle to upper 70s.
-Meteorologist Blake Hansen