Winter storm to spread snow, ice, and rain across the area Monday
Northern Michigan will start off the week with messy weather running the entire gamut from heavy snow to sleet/freezing rain or just plain old rain.
Strengthening low pressure over Southern Kansas Sunday evening will make a beeline to near Chicago Monday evening and will cross Central Lower Michigan Tuesday before exiting the area
Northern Michigan lies squarely in the transition zone with temperatures Monday sitting in the 20's over the U.P./Straits where mainly snow will fall to mid-40's across Central/Southern Lower Michigan where it will rain. In-between will lie an area of freezing rain/sleet across mainly Northern Lower Michigan with some ice accumulation possible.
This will ramp up early Monday with rain developing along/south of highway M-55 by sunrise Monday morning. Temperatures will be in the low/mid-30's in this area but there could be early day icing. As this all lifts north, where it is colder we expect snow to develop from highway M-32 north initially with freezing rain/sleet/rain south of there by midday Monday. It appears the rain/freezing rain line will lift as far north as Pellston-Cheboygan by Monday night.
SNOW: The Eastern U.P./Straits along with a decent portion of Northeast Lower Michigan will see all snow out of this event as it stays too cold to switch over. Expect a solid 3-6" of snow by mid-Monday evening from Gaylord north/east of there including Alpena/Cheboygan/Drummond Island/Sault Ste. Marie. Total snow accumulation by late Tuesday here will end up in the 3-8" range. Further south, little if any snow through early Tuesday morning.
ICE: South of the snow area will be a wedge of freezing rain which initially looks to set up between highway M-72 on the south end to highway M-68 on the north side. Some spots we are looking at include Bellaire/Gaylord/Grayling/Kalkaska and several spots surrounding these areas. Ice accumulation will sit in the .05-.30" range. That higher amount will be in very isolated spots but is possible. Roads will be very treacherous in some spots here the duration of Monday.
RAIN: Along/south of highway M-55 we expect temperatures to remain warm enough for just rain. The may be a window earlier in the morning (especially between M-72 and M-55) where roads may ice up some but it will warm enough for just rain and wet roads by the afternoon/evening hours.
We start Tuesday with some light freezing rain or drizzle in spots in Lower Michigan (snow north) with all areas eventually seeing a switch-over to all snow by Tuesday afternoon although snow will be winding down and exiting the area by later Tuesday.
Quiet weather expected Wednesday/Thursday as high pressure builds back into the area.